in the eyes of director of school of international studies of Peking University

http://finance.sina.com.cn/hy/20131206/161817555969.shtml

On the salon of Antarctic Forum 2013 Antarctic expedition recently, Wang Jisi, director of school of international studies of Peking University, used following analysis frameworks to discuss the current situation of international politics and economy: there are six imbalances, three uncertainties and three certainties in global development.

Let us have a brief introduction of Wang Jisi. He was the director of American Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the director of Institute of International Strategy of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. He was the visiting scholar and associate professor in University of Oxford, University of California, Berkeley and the University of Michigan. He was the visiting professor of Asian Affairs in Clermont McKenna College of University of California and in 2005, he succeeded Qian Qichen as the director of school of international studies of Peking University.

In Wang Jisi’s opinion, the imbalance of population development is one of the six imbalances in global development.

On the early morning of Oct 31st 2011, an infant who was one of the 7 billion members in the world was born in Philippines, with the background that 95% percent of newly-born population of 7 billion worldwide was in developing countries. Aging of population is serious in Europe, Japan and Russia where even negative population growth appeared. But in areas like India, Africa and south Asia population still grows fast.

Wang Jisi said that one quarter of the population in America was the white race a hundred years ago, but now the ratio is only 10% and will last for a period of time. By 2050, the amount of Caucasian (white race) will have been less than half of the American population. Because of the family planning policy, the population development in China is slow and aging of population is serious. 

The second is the imbalance of social development caused by urbanization.

With the urbanization, a series of problem emerged one after another such as water resources, urban management, public security and traffic lights with the imbalance of population development. Many people in the developed countries are not the original residents. A large number of immigrants in Europe moved from east Europe, but more were from west Asia, north Africa and Muslim.

According to the independent variable, Wang Jisi said that 42% of the population in EU Capital Brussels will be immigrants in 2025 and most of them are Muslim. In 2025, 20% of the European population will be the immigrants from west Asia, north Africa and east Europe, which will have a huge influence to these countries since the issues in Europe must take new immigrants into consideration. However, Europe has to ease immigration policy because of needing labor force. The decline of economic dynamism in Japan is relevant to rejecting new immigrants.

In a word, 240 million in 7 billion population live outside their country of birth.

The third is the imbalances between the supply and demand for bulk commodities.

Although more and more countries and enterprises are developing new energy, there’s still a huge gap in the demand for energy and water resources. More than half of the 500 main streams in the world has been drained or polluted seriously, which may have impact on the relationship between China and surrounding region like Mekong region, India and Russia.

The fourth is the imbalance of the earth ecology. For example, climate change will have a huge impact on human beings. Most of the countries in the world admitted that part of the climate change was caused by human activity.

The fifth is the imbalance of world economy development.

Wang Jisi explained that developed countries consume more and developing countries produce more. The service industries in western countries are well developed while the manufacturing industries are undeveloped. But their high precise production are well developed and are absorbing manufacturing industry.

Focusing on China and America, the gap of science and technology education in some fields is widening. “It was a big warning,” said Wang Jisi.

The sixth is the imbalance of world wealth distribution.

It is a recognized fact that the gap between the rich and the poor has increased worldwide. What should be noticed is that not only the wealth gap between countries is widening, but also in one country and region the wealth gap within society is increasing.

Wang Jisi considered that the problem caused by the six imbalances is the non-peace of the world and the accumulation of the social contradictions. “Chaos and disorder might happen in the future years and developed countries are no exception. This is a mutual influence.”

In Wang Jisi’s opinion, there’re also three uncertainties in the world development.

The first uncertainty is about where the scientific technology development and new economic growth points occur.

Next is the rise and fall of the country.

The third uncertainty is about the direction of the global politics.

Comparing to the uncertainties, Wang Jisi thought that there’re also three certainties.

Firstly, the world economy is moving forward, although with a slow speed. The overall world economic growth rate is about 3% and the crisis like the Great Depression of the 1930s will not happen any longer.

Secondly, the relationships among big powers are stable. The China-US and the Sino-Japanese relations are the biggest uncertainties. However, America and Europe are alliances as well as America and Japan. Therefore, the relationship between America and Russia will be relatively stable.

The third is that the international politics and economy order will be stable. Basic rules such as market economy and sovereignty principle among countries will not be completely changed. The situation and rules will be the same in the future years.

Wang Jisi stated the international politics and economy situation above the three certainties, that is, the international environment facing China. But as he said, when it came to the international environment the main attention should be paid back to China.

When talking about international issues on the Third Plenary Session of the eighteen held last month, they just said that after the significant change taking place in the international politics and economy order, the international situation is quite complicated. Wang Jisi said that for China, the biggest task is at home and the biggest enemy is itself.

In terms of peaceful development, only traditional security and non-traditional security need to be pay attention to.

The former is about territory, sovereignty and military and the latter is international economy imbalances, financial imbalances, network security, terrorism, illegal immigrants, public sanitation, infectious diseases and drug trafficking.

In the opinion of the director of school of international studies of Peking University, traditional security issues should be handed to the government and citizens should deal with what we focus on. On one hand China should take more part in global governance, but the most important connotation is that as citizens and individuals we need to consider about taking responsibility. We need shared value.